Global Steel Demand Outlook for 2025–2026

Global steel consumption is encountering unpredictability due to trade disputes and economic volatility. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic for 2025. Demand is expected to stabilize and show moderate growth in 2026. The outlook reflects resilient global economies, ongoing infrastructure projects, and potential easing in financing conditions.

China’s steel consumption is forecast to fall by around 2% in 2025. The housing market slowdown is the main contributing factor. By 2026, the decline is expected to ease to approximately 1%. Challenges include tighter trade conditions and limited local government investment, which could suppress demand further.

Steel consumption in developing countries outside China is projected to grow strongly. Growth of 3.4% is anticipated in 2025, followed by 4.7% in 2026. India leads this expansion, with nearly 9% annual growth driven by industrial, construction, and infrastructure sectors. By 2026, steel demand in India may exceed 2020 levels by about 75 million tonnes.

Africa is experiencing a clear recovery after nearly a decade of stagnant steel use. Demand has risen at an average of 5.5% per year over the last three years. Northern and Eastern regions show particularly strong growth. Macroeconomic stability and policy reforms support this rebound. Total steel consumption in Africa is expected to reach roughly 41 million tonnes by 2025.

Central and South America are also showing notable growth. Steel demand is projected to expand by 5.5% in 2025. Argentina is recovering from a sharp decline in 2024. Brazil’s steel consumption is supported by social housing initiatives, boosting demand for construction-related steel. However, overall regional demand still falls short of historical highs, highlighting the effects of long-term deindustrialization.

In developed markets, steel demand continues to experience sustained pressures. The EU and UK are expected to grow moderately, with 1.3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. Growth is supported by infrastructure and defense spending, alongside improving macroeconomic conditions. In the US, steel demand may rise 1.8% in both years, fueled by infrastructure investment and potential stimulus initiatives. Japan and Korea are projected to maintain subdued demand throughout 2026.

The global steel industry navigates high production costs, consumer affordability pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty. Trade disputes continue to weigh on demand for steel-intensive goods. Still, emerging markets and infrastructure-driven investments provide areas of optimism for growth.