Steel fundamentals were further improved against the backdrop of the decline in molten iron in steel mills, and the pressure on steel mills and social inventories was further reduced. However, the reality of widespread losses in the market, combined with the poor sustainability of the market, the selling pressure is still large. In addition, local contradictions already exist, mainly among varieties. For example, the fundamental contradictions of various varieties of plate series still need time to be alleviated, and the large billet inventory also needs time to be digested. It is expected that this week (July 11-july 15, 2022) will still be in the cycle of digestion contradictions, with price shocks and high restrictions. Some varieties are supported by the first low, and the pattern of long, strong and weak plates will continue.
At the beginning of the week, steel prices generally fell, the weak recovery of downstream demand and the multi-point spread of the domestic epidemic were the main reasons. Recently, the market is intertwined with long and short factors. The adverse factors are the recent recurrence of the COVID-19 in Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Xi'an and other places, the superposition of the off-season consumption, the release of downstream demand once again blocked, and the cautious operation of businesses, focusing on reducing inventory and preventing risks. The favorable factors are: first, the long and short process steel mills are in a state of loss, the steel mills actively reduce production and increase production restrictions, the operating rate of electric furnaces has decreased significantly, the operating rate of blast furnaces has continued to fall, and the supply pressure of construction steel has eased, but the pressure of plates is still large; Second, the implementation of the steady growth policy is accelerated, and the early centralized construction projects enter the construction period, and the downstream demand is expected to continue to rise; Third, the favorable policies will continue to be released. The national standing committee will deploy the implementation of tax rebates, tax reductions and other policies, stabilize the economic market, and the Ministry of Commerce will issue notices to promote the rapid growth of automobile consumption. On the whole, with the implementation of the steady growth policy and the increasing efforts of steel mills to actively limit production, the domestic steel market price is expected to stabilize and rebound this week (July 11-july 15, 2022).
Driven by the steady growth package policy, the current domestic economy is in the process of recovery, but the foundation of recovery is not solid. While doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control, we should also do a good job in stabilizing the economy, so as to promote the economic operation to return to the normal track as soon as possible. At present, driven by the steady growth policy, the sales end of the real estate industry has shown signs of gradually warming up, but it will take time for it to be transmitted to the investment end and the construction end; The strength of the continued recovery of the infrastructure industry will be determined by the availability of project funds; The manufacturing industry will gradually improve with the strong support of the policy. For the domestic steel market, the substantial adjustment of steel price in the early stage is conducive to the recovery of downstream demand side, and the improvement of demand will also contribute to the stability of the steel market. From the supply side, as the scope of production reduction of loss making steel mills is expanding, from the southwest to the northwest and then to the central region, and the scale is transiting from small volume to large volume, the average daily pig iron output of large and medium-sized steel enterprises has fallen to less than 2million tons in late June, which indicates that the production reduction gate of domestic steel enterprises has been officially opened, and the short-term steel production capacity release will continue to shrink. From the demand side, because the current steel price is relatively low, part of the demand for replenishment has been effectively released. As the domestic steel market is still in the traditional off-season of demand, the impact of high temperature and rain is inevitable, and the intensity and sustainability of demand release have once again triggered market concerns. From the cost side, the reduction of steel production has forced the demand for raw materials to begin to decline, and at the same time, the pressure on raw material prices is obvious. In the short term, the domestic steel market will face the situation of continuous supply contraction, insufficient demand in the off-season and weak cost pressure. According to the data of Lange steel cloud business platform weekly price prediction model, this week (July 11-july 15, 2022), the domestic steel market may show a volatile and slightly upward market.